Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 33.164516 35.867389 38.829574 42.344573 46.439053 51.105714 56.897947
2025-07-20 28.858745 32.354134 36.439811 41.660668 48.299763 56.681111 68.462239
2025-07-27 27.452121 31.609951 36.714159 43.635761 53.121595 66.276878 87.251020
2025-08-03 26.007815 30.530082 36.285793 44.454808 56.347135 74.230917 106.348984
2025-08-10 24.630351 29.340049 35.503599 44.574632 58.458300 80.873597 125.986467
2025-08-17 23.085300 27.772698 34.024631 43.461665 58.436155 83.942797 140.263971
2025-08-24 21.757881 26.385941 32.655076 42.319115 58.131882 86.370449 154.421952
2025-08-31 21.424702 26.312052 33.097883 43.922533 62.570156 98.757704 202.002771
2025-09-07 20.409887 25.219008 31.976983 42.941914 62.334583 101.679348 225.700474
2025-09-14 19.545853 24.286681 31.022906 42.127171 62.263403 104.938882 254.422279
2025-09-21 18.498500 23.041908 29.529316 40.299271 60.051107 102.765008 260.317184
2025-09-28 17.665996 22.070127 28.395906 38.987939 58.683848 102.359243 274.646674
2025-10-05 17.386747 21.987927 28.760899 40.520001 63.737818 121.468017 446.997585
2025-10-12 16.600426 21.134075 27.898644 39.885458 64.395961 129.853800 619.739879
2025-10-19 16.415518 21.150645 28.391478 41.716975 70.861144 161.164342 1825.646559
2025-10-26 16.032158 20.836325 28.315619 42.475187 75.114958 190.099421 22257.772298
2025-11-02 15.566186 20.363421 27.934530 42.586047 77.814782 216.681756 NaN
2025-11-09 14.943967 19.613575 27.034070 41.555713 77.248953 227.020458 NaN
2025-11-16 14.365850 18.906097 26.162386 40.496534 76.394667 235.623714 NaN
2025-11-23 14.244216 18.910361 26.506970 41.982533 83.270173 308.357492 NaN
2025-11-30 13.760634 18.313020 25.763074 41.074072 82.689796 325.318952 NaN
2025-12-07 13.332165 17.787223 25.117043 40.318449 82.449909 346.982839 NaN
2025-12-14 12.789261 17.058170 24.077555 38.620417 78.838660 329.218052 NaN